A new year always brings a feeling of hope. After a down year in the agriculture cycle, a little hope could go a long way. As 2025 approaches with a new administration coming onboard in the U.S., ongoing international conflicts and a global down-economy, many factors will influence 2025. While the AgriThority® team sees some of the same trends from prior years, they also have identified many emerging trends that could improve the outlook for agriculture innovation in 2025.
“AgriThority® stays on the cutting-edge of technology, and our staff and Associates are connected in many areas of the industry across the world,” says Jerry Duff, AgriThority® Founder and President. “This allows them to quickly identify emerging trends and apply those insights to enhance our development services for clients.”
1. Growing demand for transparency in biostimulant mode-of-action.
This is driven by user awareness and regulatory changes, according to Ignacio Colonna, AgriThority® Global Director of Science & Technology.
“While not a clear-cut change, there is an ongoing trend that we anticipate will keep growing: a demand from industry and farmers about a clear understanding of biostimulant products’ mode-of-action,” Colonna says. “This is moving away from ‘black box’ products that simply help the crop ‘yield more.’ In our view, this trend comes from a better understanding by final users that biostimulant products tend to provide their value under a certain range of conditions rather than a fixed, constant effect across all crops, environments or management practices. This demand from users is accompanied by recent changes in registration requirements around the world (e.g., EU, Brazil and Argentina). These require more specific experimental information to substantiate the specific mode in which a product triggers responses in their target crops, such as testing in controlled environments that can isolate confounding factors and allow a more precise identification of changes in, for example, early-stage root or above ground growth or health.”
2. Precise biological evaluation adoption.
Adoption of specific protocols for precise evaluation of emerging biological technologies is essential.
“Companies should consider the adoption of protocols specifically suited to the evaluation of new biological technologies through a heavy reliance on objective assessments based on state-of-the-art digital technologies, such as root digital scans or seedling images for early-stage crop assessments, multispectral drone sensors for small plot field trials and time-series of satellite images for field-scale, advanced stage experiments,” Colonna says. For example, the growing offer of biological products targeting an improved nitrogen use efficiency generates a challenge on the ability to measure these relatively small responses precisely at the field scale – replacing just 40 lb./ac of N is very relevant for a farmer, but quite complicated to measure beyond the small plot scale.
3. Ideas with merit will still find funding and prosper,
according to Gloverson Moro, AgriThority® Chief Technology Officer.
Some of the ideas with merit will be innovations that improve production under stress conditions.
“We continue to see companies investing in and getting investment for various crop technologies that improve production under stress conditions, such as water scarcity or thermal stress,” says Eleonora Da Riva, AgriThority® Product Development Agronomist LATAM.
The key will be proving the merit through robust, credible data to show consistent and efficacious results.
4. Continue transition into biological and chemical program approach.
The farming community will start to transition into a combined use of chemicals and biologicals into a “program,” which allows introduction of lower performing products and will start to reduce the amount of applied chemicals.
“Every time there is a new active with good performance and environmental profile, the industry gets excited that we might have a good solution,” Moro says. “With more companies pulling away from chemicals in geographies like Europe, farmers will have to embrace new product categories. There is a lot of opportunity in this area, but the industry needs to decide what’s acceptable as far as performance. For example, even if a biocontrol product has acceptable performance, even if it is not as good as a chemical one, it may be useful in a program, mixed or alternated with or more chemicals. It is, by any definition, a new active with a good environmental profile, and that makes it an interesting alternative.
5. Regulatory initiatives in the U.S. are setting the stage for innovation in 2025,
according to George Fountas, AgriThority® Global Director, Regulatory Affairs.
“U.S. states are beginning to modify their laws and regulations to adopt the American Association of Plant Food Control Officials (AAPFCO) beneficial substances model bill that was approved in 2024,” Fountas says. “This is going to create more of a consistent framework from state to state on how biostimulants are regulated. It won’t be completed in 2025, but I imagine we’ll see some additional states adopting this new model bill. A joint framework was released outlining how EPA, USDA and FDA will work together to regulate biotech products, gene editing and genetic technologies in plants, animals, microbes, etc. The framework that was released is intended to provide more clarity and transparency in how these products are regulated, and this framework should be implemented in 2025. I would anticipate new and updated guidance documents to be released with the goal to increase trust and clarity in the system to encourage new innovations.”
Moro mentions the new U.S. administration could affect where regulatory in the U.S. goes, and we will see that trajectory become clearer in 2025.
“The additional clarity in what a company needs to do to register products should encourage more startup and small companies to expand to new geographies,” says Richard Shaw, AgriThority® Senior Product Development Manager.
Paula Prieto, AgriThority® Product Development in EMEA, points out that the slow regulatory process in Europe seems to have led to companies deprioritizing Europe as a destination, while LATAM is gaining increased importance, but new initiatives are on the horizon that could improve the process.
“Companies are always eager to work together with regulatory bodies and to propose solutions to make the process faster, but this is something that needs to be urgently considered going into 2025,” she says. “There are success cases like Brazil that should be considered for replication.”
6. Artificial Intelligence has been hyped, but in 2025 its use will be defined better.
AI and automation are going to play a much bigger role in 2025 than it did in 2024. It’s not 100 percent clear how these are going to expand in 2025, but things are moving pretty quickly from a regulatory perspective, according to Fountas.
7. International sustainability is being better defined.
“Farmers’ revenue streams from sustainability are getting better defined, and diversification for farmers continues to be important in a continued down market,” Moro says.
Shaw points out that sustainability will be a continued focus for companies in 2025, which will likely continue to increase interest in biologicals.
8. More Chinese and Indian companies are coming to market.
“Chinese companies have played the role of tollers for larger companies or providers of smaller player of generic products,” Moro says. “Now we’re seeing those companies having capabilities to develop novel products. Same thing happening with Indian companies. Chinese companies are dealing with a lot of geopolitical tensions. Indian companies will be more visible in providing generics and novel products. How will they reach the market? Each company has aspirations of being a global player, but how will they get there? They’ll need local partners and distributions, as well as more development and regulatory capabilities.
9. Economics will continue to impact innovation and progress, especially in the U.S.
“The economic news for U.S. agriculture has not been good throughout 2024, and it is currently forecast to continue on a downward trend for 2025,” Shaw says. “Recent data published by Farm Journal (Table 1) indicates that agricultural lenders are predicting that nationwide only 57% of Ag borrowers will be profitable and for 2025, that number will be lower at 52%. This is a downward trend that has been observed across all production regions since 2022.” However, Shaw goes on to point out that there is also some reason for optimism that tax and regulatory changes could start to help farmers and companies in the new year. But what trade will look like it still up in the air.
When your new biocontrol technology is ready for product development, turn to AgriThority® for strategic and scientific expertise. Our global footprint is combined with our deep understanding of agricultural business, regulatory demands, market channels and producer dynamics. We help move your innovation from concept to commercial adoption.
10. The introduction of new genetically modified crops should continue in 2025.
Shaw says new companies are targeting this market, and that should continue in 2025. The challenge for companies developing new genetically modified crops will be aligning company, and capital funding timeline expectations with regulatory timelines.
To help your company capitalize on these trends and more in 2025, reach out to AgriThority® for your business, market and product development needs, as well as regulatory counsel. Our international footprint, combined with our deep understanding of market and producer dynamics, helps you to leap hurdles and overcome barriers to set up your products for success.